Nigerian stock market has experienced its most impressive gains under any civilian government since 1999, with the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (ASI) surging by over 136% since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in May 2023.
This dramatic rise, according to a Nairametric analysis, has pushed the index from 55,769.28 points on May 29, 2023, to approximately 131,000 points as of July 2025.
This marks the strongest early-term Nigerian stock market performance by any president.
Comparative Gains Across Democratic Administrations
The pace of gains under Tinubu has dwarfed that of previous presidencies. Under Muhammadu Buhari, for instance, the market grew by a modest 4.47% within the same 24-month period in office.
Goodluck Jonathan’s tenure saw a 47% gain by June 2013, while the Umaru Yar’Adua presidency recorded a 49% loss amid the 2008 global financial crisis and local economic turbulence.
Only the Olusegun Obasanjo administration, according to the analysis, comes close, having delivered 115% gains in the stock market by July 2001. Yet Tinubu’s performance now sets a new benchmark.
Even when adjusting for inflation and currency pressures, analysts say the NGX’s current rally is a notable bright spot in an otherwise turbulent macroeconomic landscape.
“This is the most sustained equity rally we’ve seen under any Nigerian government,” Tunde Ajeigbe, an investment analyst told Techparley. “This kind of rally reflects a market-friendly direction, a disciplined domestic investor base and corporate resilience.”
What’s Fueling the Nigerian Stock Market Run?
Economists attribute the recent Nigerian stock market record rally to the Tinubu administration’s sweeping reforms.
According to industry leaders, the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, and efforts to unify multiple exchange rates have laid the groundwork for renewed investor confidence.
Key drivers identified by analysts include the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) bank recapitalisation programme, expected to inject over N5 trillion into the system by 2026.
Increased FAAC allocations following subsidy removal, surging system liquidity, high interest rates (MPR at 27.5%), and limited forex speculation have also pushed capital towards equities.
“These reforms have helped stabilise the macroeconomic environment,” said Bakre Sofia, a senior economist. “These factors have combined to provide fertile ground for sustained capital inflows.”
Local Investors Driving the Rally
Nairametrics data shows that domestic institutional and retail investors have been the dominant force behind the rally.
From May 2023 to May 2025, domestic equity trading reached N9.375 trillion – 81% of total transactions, compared to N2.159 trillion from foreign portfolio investors.
According to industry experts, the tilt towards domestic capital flows reflects a maturing local investor base and dwindling foreign appetite amid persistent currency risk.
High-performing sectors include banking, ICT, industrials, and energy. The banking sector alone has added over N7 trillion in market cap since 2023, buoyed by recapitalisation news and improved earnings outlooks.
ICT giants like MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa have gained over N3 trillion and N1.8 trillion respectively. Aradel Holdings’ listing added another N2 trillion in capitalisation, with analysts anticipating further momentum from upcoming listings like Dangote Fertilizer and a possible NNPC IPO.
Scepticism Remain
Despite the market success, economists warn that the rally is not reflective of the broader economic experience of Nigerians.
Experts also warn that without structural reforms to deepen financial inclusion, improve infrastructure, and support SMEs, capital markets will remain disconnected from the real economy.
“Inflation remains stubbornly high, unemployment has not meaningfully declined, and consumer purchasing power is deteriorating,” Nkechi Daniel, a business strategist said.
“We must not mistake stock performance for economic transformation. The real test will come in how the administration translates these financial gains into inclusive growth.”
Can the Nigerian Stock Market Momentum Hold?
As of mid-July 2025, Nigerian equities are already up 27.84% year-to-date. Analysts believe that if macroeconomic conditions remain relatively stable, the market could deliver another year of double-digit returns.
Yet the broader verdict on Tinubu’s economic legacy may ultimately hinge on more than the Nigerian stock market performance.
“Tinubu may go down as the most influential president for Nigeria’s capital markets,” said Tunde. “But history will ask whether the average Nigerian also saw gains, or just watched from the sidelines.”
For industry leaders, the stock market’s stellar performances remain disconnected from the daily realities of Nigerians.
The ultimate judgment for the administration, according to experts, will come from how well Nigerians fare in terms of cost of living, employment, and access to basic services.
Talking Points
President Tinubu’s stock market rally is more than a numbers game, it’s a litmus test for how much investor confidence can be built on fiscal reform, even when the broader economy is struggling.
At Techparley, we believe the surge in the Nigerian Exchange reflects strong local capital resilience, not just government policy. Still, this rally exposes a paradox: capital markets are thriving while households face worsening inflation, unemployment, and naira instability.
If these reforms don’t translate to real economic relief, the market’s momentum may become politically unsustainable.
As analysts look ahead, one question lingers: Can this run deepen Nigeria’s financial markets beyond Lagos and Abuja? Or will it widen the disconnect between capital growth and grassroots economic wellbeing?
